Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.214524 0.257441 0.308695 0.375004 0.459371 0.564284 7.064408e-01
2025-08-03 0.173658 0.229278 0.304097 0.414460 0.577252 0.815462 1.204036e+00
2025-08-10 0.137923 0.197005 0.284856 0.430278 0.676041 1.097140 1.929383e+00
2025-08-17 0.108212 0.165126 0.257333 0.426419 0.750573 1.398348 2.961761e+00
2025-08-24 0.090637 0.147279 0.246984 0.449576 0.892629 1.941247 5.146919e+00
2025-08-31 0.076639 0.131745 0.236370 0.470549 1.053433 2.698015 9.262273e+00
2025-09-07 0.065760 0.118997 0.227409 0.493572 1.247231 3.806851 1.772587e+01
2025-09-14 0.056918 0.107887 0.218573 0.515154 1.468663 5.400251 3.606284e+01
2025-09-21 0.048276 0.095020 0.202054 0.510866 1.620902 7.105325 6.955594e+01
2025-09-28 0.037940 0.076179 0.166254 0.436823 1.472105 7.159133 8.987803e+01
2025-10-05 0.033845 0.070378 0.160851 0.453098 1.708724 10.188154 2.213474e+02
2025-10-12 0.031240 0.067415 0.161954 0.492765 2.115813 16.249107 8.063616e+02
2025-10-19 0.028599 0.064023 0.161729 0.532984 2.634058 27.283986 4.928111e+03
2025-10-26 0.025921 0.059925 0.158312 0.561270 3.173559 45.024212 6.340435e+04
2025-11-02 0.022935 0.054337 0.148610 0.558219 3.526147 66.392232 3.029571e+06
2025-11-09 0.020012 0.048303 0.135671 0.533166 3.682922 88.747261 4.116133e+22
2025-11-16 0.018206 0.045029 0.131006 0.547107 4.280262 150.089905 NaN
2025-11-23 0.016623 0.042059 0.126492 0.560062 4.962349 264.475298 NaN
2025-11-30 0.015293 0.039555 0.122908 0.577057 5.821566 508.364845 NaN
2025-12-07 0.014115 0.037273 0.119459 0.593564 6.823120 1054.722813 NaN
2025-12-14 0.012791 0.034268 0.112254 0.580912 7.357245 1848.282978 NaN
2025-12-21 0.010893 0.029128 0.095139 0.489644 6.119733 1433.464970 NaN
2025-12-28 0.010187 0.027731 0.093070 0.504170 7.145429 3436.135428 NaN